Today is October 13th, 2010 and these are the most complicated, exciting, and confusing times that any Realtor has ever seen in their lifetime. If anyone tells you differently they have either put their head in the sand or have not been keeping up with the news lately. Other descriptive words such as challenging, frustrating, wierd, crazy, etc…would describe this real estate market. Being a short-sale specialist who has had first hand knowledge of numerous injustices done to homeowners, buyers, sellers, and Realtor’s over the last 3 plus years from Banks servicing these distressed loans, I am hopeful that their will be justice and change to their methods in coming months. That may be bad news and a ton of uncertainty when the ___ hits the fan soon, but long-term this will be great news for all of us.
Their is no lack of information and this is what makes it even stranger. A lot of misinformation, politics, and hidden agendas to sift through in making any sort of educated decisions today on what has happened and where are we heading. This last week of information has me convinced that it is not business as usual going forward and changes are coming. The “extend and pretend” methods of the bank servicing companies, Fannie, Freddie, and others involved with this bad debt are just not going to be tolerated and allowed to continue. Once a person grasps this phrase “Extend & Pretend” it is much easier to make sense of all the things that do not seem to be logical. Homeowners, buyers, sellers, and Realtors who cannot understand the deceit, lost paperwork, excuses, delays, poor communication, wrong decisions, etc… on their load modification, short-sale, or foreclosure only need to refer to that one phrase for an explaination. All of the government guidelines and intervention to date have been designed to further this philosophy. The Judicial branch of our government will be the stimulas to bring along the Legislative and Executive branches to do the right thing in the near future.
Right now the legal system is finally kicking into high gear. The wheels of justice take time as we all know. I am not an attorney (but I wish I was right now)! I jokingly made that statement to some real estate attorney’s last month and they looked at me kind of puzzled. In my opinion, their has never been a clearer case of fraud and crimes committed. These crimes have been committed by many of the wealthiest banks and our government against millions of Americans. The majority of Americans have either lost their home, lost real money, had serious health or life changing events due to the “Extend & Pretend” practice. I think that in the end banks, wallstreet, and the government will be found responsible for creating the system that led to the real estate bubble and collapse. Whether there is any consequence legally for that massive conspiracy is a secondary issue. The primary issue that there clearly will be legal accountability for is the banks and government actions related to “Extend and Pretend”. The financial benefits achieved with this philosophy cannot be denied by the banks. BofA and Wells Fargo both collectively had over 6 Billions in profits reported last quarter alone as a result of this philosophy. Where would their stock prices have been today had they not committed this fraud? Would BofA been able to repay the TARP money received without this fraud? The list of financial benefits to these banks by implementing “Extend and Pretend” is a long list. The words themself lead you to believe that the when the end finally does come it will not be good. With the chain of title being called into question related to MERS, MBS, rubber stamping of foreclosure documents, etc… ”Extend and Pretend” will likely end as follows:
1) Litigation and Class Action lawsuits force massive losses to Banks (Beginning to happen now). Our legislative and executive levels of government have done nothing but support “Extend & Pretend” to date. The Judicial arm of government is not likely going will seek justice and put an end to unfair business practices implemented by the banks and government.
2) Government guidelines become actual law on how Servicing companies must handle Modification, Short-Sale, Foreclosure. It starts with a foreclosure moratorium (Just happened) and ends with real change forcing an end to “Extend & Pretend”
3) Time-line to resolution of distress loans to be rapidly increased. This will likely mean timely short-sales with pre-approved prices and quick feed back on loan modification requests. The HAFA guidelines are not being followed by these lenders today. The only action that would be required by our government to make this happen is to force the lenders to comply and eliminate the term “guidelines”. Additionally, enforcement to third parties or investors with an interest in these distressed loans will need to forced into cooperation from the government. Right now the loan servicers are pointing the finger at these third parties and investors when things do not happen in a timely manner. This lack of cooperation and finger pointing can be eliminated with rules and a timeline they must follow.
4) The goverment will step in and buy all of these foreclosed homes that cannot be resold due to the title issues and further downward pressure it will put on housing prices and the economy. The government will become a large property manager for the next several decades is my prediction.
Their is uncertainty on the size of losses to the banks and what happens to their stock price. My thinking is that companies like BofA will be lucky to survive. Wall Street analysts and people who study their balance sheet probably will not figure it out either. If BofA (Countrywide) is held responsible for having a large part in causing the real estate bubble due to the fraud committed and was financially responsible for the harm they caused to millions of Americans from their wrong doing related to “extend and pretend” how much will it cost them? The other half of the equation is the actual losses that will be realized when they are forced to modify, short-sale, and foreclose on these distressed loans in a relatively quick period of time? You add the two numbers together and tell me if they will still be in business. You also need to take into account the number of clients who will leave BofA and look for a new banker. I did not need a calculator to figure out that BofA is in big trouble. I pick on BofA because they are a no brainer and deserve whatever they get in the end.
If your thinking it is time to sell your home at any price and move to another country I would advise that you hang in there and wait. The scenerio which I have predicted will send home prices and wall street into a free fall again if the government does not take action and buy these foreclosed homes. America’s housing economy is too big to fail is my point. Not BofA. The government will take action is my prediction. Maybe they will call it the “American Bailout Plan (ABP)”. The government will be the only buyer for these foreclosed properties with questionable chain of title issues. If the lender’s fail to complete a loan modification or a short-sale with the current homeowner the government “American People” will be the buyer at a trustee sale or judicial sale for pennies on the dollar. It would be a terrific investment for the “American People” that actually will give America another hard asset besides Gold and Oil. The negative of this plan is that their will be a shortage of homes available to purchase and prices will likely be considerably higher. Inflation! The only thing worse than inflation is deflation. That is the decision at hand. Do we want further deflation caused by over supply of foreclosures and an endless cycle of loan defaults as prices continue lower or do we “America” want to buy back these foreclosures at already depressed prices and create a foundation that also solves many social and economic issues caused by the corruption of wall street and the banks. So my advice is to hang on if you have still got your home and see if I end up being right. If I am wrong we are heading for the next great depression.
Comments (0)